Last post before departure

From all the weather data we accumulated to date it appears as though we have 3 options to cross the Gulf Stream. The option furthest south seems to be our best one so far. Staying inside to the west of the Gulf Stream until the most optimum crossing point would allow the predicted North wind to change or diminish and also be our safest option. The actual crossing is still too far off and the weather forecast is still too far out for us to select an option for crossing at this point in time.
We will be monitoring the weather and GS closely between now and then. We should arrive Moorehead City, NC by Wednesday 11/6 and head off-shore on Thursday 11/7 in which case we will be able to more accurately predict the weather for our time off shore and be able to select 1 of our 3 options for crossing the GS and route into Treasure Cay.
Attached is a compilation of the weather and GS data we have accumulated so far which shows our various options for routing and crossing the GS at this time.
This will be the final post prior to our arrival in the Abacos. I will up date the blog with all of the statistics and pictures from the trip once we arrive and get settled.

WX & GS FORECAST – Annapolis to ABACOS 10-29

Departure: Saturday Nov 2
Winds 10 15  kts W going to NW 15 -20 kts in afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning.  On the flood until around 1700.

Sunday Nov 3
Lower Bay – Norfolk to Coanjock? - 1000 on flood, wind NW 10-15 kts on the bay, 8-12 kts NW on ICW

Monday Nov 4
Coanjock to Alligator or Pamlico River
Winds E to NE  8-12 kts

Tuesday Nov 5
Alligator or Pamlico River to Oriental
Winds mostly calm – shifting to ENE 6-10 kts

Wednesday Nov 6
Oriental to Beaufort, NC
Winds 5-10 kts E

Thursday Nov 7
Beaufort to Abacos - Departure
Winds S- SSW morning going Westerly 15-02 kts

WPTS (southern crossing):
34 34.607N/076 41.522W
32N/078W      
31N/077W
26 44.8N/077 11.5W

WPTS (northern crossing (revised)):
34 34.607N/076 41.522W
33 19N/075 17.5W    
26 44.8N/077 11.5W

Friday November 8

At sea GS crossing in late afternoon

Strong north wind – 25 kts

Saturday Nov 9

East of GS laying Abacos

Wind NE 25-30  kts

Sunday Nov 10

At sea maybe late arrival

Winds 25-30 kts ENE

Monday Nov 11

Morning Abacos Landfall

E 20 kts – this will be a breaking sea entry so want to do it in good daylight.

Gulf Stream # 5 update

Attached is the latest gulf stream routing.  Must admit, it's a bit sketchy because half of the reliable resources out there are tied up with the government shutdown.  I know they are collecting data, just not posting it so this data is 1 week old from 9/30.

This data still presents a similar picture to prior data. The big decision is to run the coast and find where to cross the stream. There appears to be a weak, but nice counter current that takes us right to the island once we get to the East side of GS.  The daring route continues to take us well south to South Carolina and then bopping across in a easterly meander which would actually be fair for us and very fast (if it is still there), then once the GS influence weakens we alter course south to the lay line. 

The other route is more conservative and the classic route of crossing the stream further north keeping it just aft of the beam and stay on that until we get out of it's clutch. Major thing with that route is not to go too far east, otherwise there is an eddy that is against us for a 100 miles or so.

Right now we're betting on the more coastal route/cross GS further south and hopefully the government will start posting their data again soon and we can make a more informed decision.

Regarding the weather, we have had a series of beautiful Highs hanging over the mid-Atlantic.  The two Mexican and TS Karen events were odd both being a Gulf of Mexico albeit weak events.  By now, everything should be east coast events and the Gulf should essentially be done.

Good thing we have Commanders Weather as a back-up although they also depend on Navy/NOAA data, they have other resources that we don't have so we would definitely rely on their opinion in light of current political events.

Need to watch the weather and Atlantic tropical activity closely from here on in. Things should begin to stabilize soon and we can focus on our weather window and route south.