Last post before departure

From all the weather data we accumulated to date it appears as though we have 3 options to cross the Gulf Stream. The option furthest south seems to be our best one so far. Staying inside to the west of the Gulf Stream until the most optimum crossing point would allow the predicted North wind to change or diminish and also be our safest option. The actual crossing is still too far off and the weather forecast is still too far out for us to select an option for crossing at this point in time.
We will be monitoring the weather and GS closely between now and then. We should arrive Moorehead City, NC by Wednesday 11/6 and head off-shore on Thursday 11/7 in which case we will be able to more accurately predict the weather for our time off shore and be able to select 1 of our 3 options for crossing the GS and route into Treasure Cay.
Attached is a compilation of the weather and GS data we have accumulated so far which shows our various options for routing and crossing the GS at this time.
This will be the final post prior to our arrival in the Abacos. I will up date the blog with all of the statistics and pictures from the trip once we arrive and get settled.

WX & GS FORECAST – Annapolis to ABACOS 10-29

Departure: Saturday Nov 2
Winds 10 15  kts W going to NW 15 -20 kts in afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning.  On the flood until around 1700.

Sunday Nov 3
Lower Bay – Norfolk to Coanjock? - 1000 on flood, wind NW 10-15 kts on the bay, 8-12 kts NW on ICW

Monday Nov 4
Coanjock to Alligator or Pamlico River
Winds E to NE  8-12 kts

Tuesday Nov 5
Alligator or Pamlico River to Oriental
Winds mostly calm – shifting to ENE 6-10 kts

Wednesday Nov 6
Oriental to Beaufort, NC
Winds 5-10 kts E

Thursday Nov 7
Beaufort to Abacos - Departure
Winds S- SSW morning going Westerly 15-02 kts

WPTS (southern crossing):
34 34.607N/076 41.522W
32N/078W      
31N/077W
26 44.8N/077 11.5W

WPTS (northern crossing (revised)):
34 34.607N/076 41.522W
33 19N/075 17.5W    
26 44.8N/077 11.5W

Friday November 8

At sea GS crossing in late afternoon

Strong north wind – 25 kts

Saturday Nov 9

East of GS laying Abacos

Wind NE 25-30  kts

Sunday Nov 10

At sea maybe late arrival

Winds 25-30 kts ENE

Monday Nov 11

Morning Abacos Landfall

E 20 kts – this will be a breaking sea entry so want to do it in good daylight.

Gulf Stream # 5 update

Attached is the latest gulf stream routing.  Must admit, it's a bit sketchy because half of the reliable resources out there are tied up with the government shutdown.  I know they are collecting data, just not posting it so this data is 1 week old from 9/30.

This data still presents a similar picture to prior data. The big decision is to run the coast and find where to cross the stream. There appears to be a weak, but nice counter current that takes us right to the island once we get to the East side of GS.  The daring route continues to take us well south to South Carolina and then bopping across in a easterly meander which would actually be fair for us and very fast (if it is still there), then once the GS influence weakens we alter course south to the lay line. 

The other route is more conservative and the classic route of crossing the stream further north keeping it just aft of the beam and stay on that until we get out of it's clutch. Major thing with that route is not to go too far east, otherwise there is an eddy that is against us for a 100 miles or so.

Right now we're betting on the more coastal route/cross GS further south and hopefully the government will start posting their data again soon and we can make a more informed decision.

Regarding the weather, we have had a series of beautiful Highs hanging over the mid-Atlantic.  The two Mexican and TS Karen events were odd both being a Gulf of Mexico albeit weak events.  By now, everything should be east coast events and the Gulf should essentially be done.

Good thing we have Commanders Weather as a back-up although they also depend on Navy/NOAA data, they have other resources that we don't have so we would definitely rely on their opinion in light of current political events.

Need to watch the weather and Atlantic tropical activity closely from here on in. Things should begin to stabilize soon and we can focus on our weather window and route south.

Gulf Stream update # 4

Not much change in the GS routing.  Looks like there are still two options with the first being the most desirable - Essentially South from Beufort to approx 32N/077.4W and then find a fast heading to approx 33N/076W so we don't buck the current and then south to Abaco once we are out of the GS's strength.

This route gives us a good heading in the prevailing SE winds or westerlies and it appears that there is a southbound eddy that will give us a little kick.

The other route is more down the coast and crossing abeam of Charleston - the only advantage to this route is if there are questionable weather issues and it allows duck-in options.

Weather wise, it appears that some of the classic characteristics of autumn weather trends are starting to kick in - there will be a big High coming down through the lakes and slowly drift to the east.  This will bring stronger winds out in the NE area as a low passes up by Nova Scotia and northerlies off Hatteras - for our route this would bring a nice fair breeze - although a bit on the lighter side.

It's still too early to worry about weather right now, but we are continuing to watch the currents and infact there are some anomilies in the predictions which locates the GS in different areas on our route and also locates some eddies in different parts of our route but more importantly our speed through the water vs. speed over ground differential will give us the real story.
 

Solomon's Island

We visited Solomon's Island from 8/17 to 8/24 and stayed at the Solomon's Island Yacht Club. It was about 50 nm from Annapolis where the Chesapeake Bay meets the Patuxent River.  We averaged +/- 6 knots and it took about 6 hours going and 7 hours coming back against the current. There was no wind in either direction.  The forecast for the week was hot and humid. The SIYC was very accommodating.  It was clear the day we departed but it rained on and off the first 2 days we were there. The weather cleared on the 3rd day and it became sunny, hot and continued humid for the remainder of the trip. We visited the Calvert Marine Museum, Oyster Packing House and the U of M Marine Biological Laboratory. The Island is known for it's Tiki Bar which supposedly attracts tens of thousands of visitors annually. We also made a trip to the local WM about 1-1/2 miles away and had lunch at The Captains Table. We were invited to attend a Taco dinner at the yacht club and had dinner at DiGiovanni's, The Striped Rock, The Dry Dock Restaurant at Zahnisers Marina, Solomons Pier and the Belle Maison Bistro at the Blue Heron Inn during our stay.  Across from the Island is the Patuxent Naval Air Station where jet fighters took off and landed regularly throughout the day. Solomon's Island brought  back some old  memories.  It was our first unscheduled stop after leaving Reedville, Va. with the first Mai Toi in 2000 in route to Guilford, CT.

 

 

 

 

Gulf Stream update

There are two possible routes as of today.  The first route is approx 500 nm and is the preferred route if the winds are right.
The alternative route adds 110 nm, in case we get southerlies or southeasterlies early in the trip. The alternative route will give us a better sailing angle or if we get north to northeasterlies early in the trip, in which case it is desirable to stay out of the stream until they shifted.
Both routes provide about 50-65 nm free miles from the current.
The Rhumb line (about 460 nm) adds 50-65 nm through the water.  IE: GS routing optimization gives a 100-130 nm difference,  about a day of sailing.

Inner Harbor

A little side trip to the Baltimore Inner Harbor this past Labor Day weekend with good friends Pete & Joyce Arentzen.  We went to the National Aquarium and had dinner at the Rusty Scupper on Saturday and saw the Izod Indy Car Series Baltimore Grand Prix and met the winning driver Simon Pagenaud at Fogo do Chao Sunday night. We stayed right downtown at the BMC Inner Harbor Marina. The boat performed exceptionally well although we only had 5-10 knots of wind. Nevertheless it was a beautiful weekend, sunny and very warm. Now to begin final preparations for the Bahamas trip.

Gulf Stream update to the Bahamas

Routing to Bahamas looks pretty straight forward and these currents are very similar to what we saw a couple of years ago.  Of course, 2 months from now it will be different.

Basically optimum current routing is to go down the coast to mid lat S.Carolina and cross a weak part of the GS and then sail a line that runs east of the rhumbline to stay in a favorable counter-current.  When we get closer to landfall, we would make a turn to the SW and put another current on our port beam.  Waypoints, if we were leave today are:

33N 075W
27N 076.5W

Weather-wise it is kind of quiet today with prevailing systems Westerlies in northern part of run - shifting through NW and SW depending on passing systems, easterlies and SElies in southern part of run.

The tropics have been quiet along our route, but the season is still young.  There is a low coming off Africa which has all the makings of an event, but GRIB is routing it to go north right now.  None-the-less, it is essential to stay on-top of it.

Gulf Stream analysis

Latest Gulf Steam analysis.

Right now the GS is doing a little wiggle to the east off Cape Fear, which makes routing more complicated than the last time we made this trip. If we were to leave today we would have two major alternatives 1. get across early and then go south or 2. work our way down the east coast and go across further down south.  In this case, we should let weather define our routing.  If the weathers iffy, then the coastal route makes more sense and gives us options to duck into if necessary. 

Usually the GS is a bit more west of its current location off Cape Fear at this time but suspect when we get around to November, that will be the case.  Also looking for a nice southbound eddy like the one we found on the last trip but don't see anything to get excited about just yet.
 

Fuel Management Plan for the Bahamas

FUEL MANAGEMENT PLAN 

Beaufort, N.C. to Abacos, Bahamas = 575 nm (approx. max.)

Fuel Capacity:  80 gals. + 5 x 5 gal. Jerry cans = 105 gals.

 

RPM :                           2000 RPM  

Average speed:            5.5 knots or 6.33 mph

Elapsed time of trip:   104.5 hours = 4 days, 8.5 hours         

 

Fuel consumption:      1.0 gal/hour 

Max. fuel range:          577.5 nm 

Max. fuel time:            105 hours = 4 days, 9 hours 

Fuel surplus/deficit:    + 0.5 gals. = 2.75 nm or 0.5 hours

 

Approximate actual mileage: Annapolis to Norfolk =140 nm, Norfolk to Beaufort via ICW=205 nm and Beaufort to the Abacos = 475 nm (Rhumb line), totally 820 nm.                                                    

 

1 mile = 0.869 nm 

1 knot = 1.151 mph

Tenative itinerary for the Bahamas 2013/2014

Saturday November 2nd depart Annapolis, MD. 

Sunday November 3rd arrive Norfolk, VA.

Monday November 4th ICW.

Tuesday November 5th ICW.                                                          

Wednesday November 6th arrive Beaufort, NC.  

Thursday November 7th at sea.

Friday November 8th at sea.  

Saturday November 9th at sea.

Sunday November 10th arrive Treasure Cay, Abacos, Bahamas  

This itinerary is still very preliminary and subject to weather. 

Team/Crew:

Capt. Richard Toth
Capt. Mike Bancroft  
Capt. Bob Clark
Capt. Tom Lanzilli

Launched

The Mai Toi was re-commissioned and launched at Port Annapolis Marina in Annapolis, MD on Friday May 3, 2013 and will be docked in slip G-11.  Our first weekend at the boat was dedicated to checking systems, organizing and provisioning.  Our shake down cruise will be to St. Michaels on Memorial Day weekend.  We plan to sail the Chesapeake the rest of the summer before heading back down to Treasure Cay in the Bahamas for the winter. Below are some pictures of the Mai Toi's new home.